Supporting planning activities with the assessment and the prediction of urban sprawl using spatio-temporal analysis

The inestimable value of soil is exemplarily summarized in the definition provided by the European Union (2006), which considers it as "the upper layer of the earth's crust, formed by mineral particles, organic matter, water, air and living organisms". The importance of soil protection is now universally recognized, but despite a lot of debates and principle’s enunciation, in the last decades soil was consumed at a rate of 8 m2 per second. The aim of this study is to propose a model which, on one side, is able to measure variations occurred in land use, and, therefore, to determine soil consumption, and, on the other side, is capable to predict future changes. Specifically, a simulation model has been proposed based on two methods: Joint information uncertainty and Weights of Evidence in order to analyse and predict new built-up areas. The proposed model has been applied to Pisticci Municipality in Basilicata region (Southern Italy). This area is a significant example, because of its high landscape value and, at the same time, of a lot of developing pressure due to touristic activities along the coastal zone.