This article presents a multi-temporal uncertainty-based method that incorporates a statistical regression model with a view to establishing the risk (probability) of land cover changes as a function of a set of environmental and socio-economic driving factors. The morphologic, climatic and socio-economic variables were examined using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Following the analysis, maps indicating the suitability to future changes were generated on the basis of observed transitions. From these maps two possible land use scenarios were built, applying the Markov chain principle. The region of Basilicata, in southern Italy, was selected for the analysis. The results highlight: a) a good inclination to change towards specialised crop systems, provided there is sufficient water supply; b) that some cropping patterns are not suitable for changes, partly because they are found in a context with severe limitations for alternative uses.

Post-2013 EU Common Agricultural Policy: predictive models of land use change

ROMANO, Severino;COZZI, Mario
;
GIGLIO, PAOLO;CATULLO, GIOVANNA
2013-01-01

Abstract

This article presents a multi-temporal uncertainty-based method that incorporates a statistical regression model with a view to establishing the risk (probability) of land cover changes as a function of a set of environmental and socio-economic driving factors. The morphologic, climatic and socio-economic variables were examined using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Following the analysis, maps indicating the suitability to future changes were generated on the basis of observed transitions. From these maps two possible land use scenarios were built, applying the Markov chain principle. The region of Basilicata, in southern Italy, was selected for the analysis. The results highlight: a) a good inclination to change towards specialised crop systems, provided there is sufficient water supply; b) that some cropping patterns are not suitable for changes, partly because they are found in a context with severe limitations for alternative uses.
2013
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
11142-25202-1-PB.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Documento in Post-print
Licenza: DRM non definito
Dimensione 428.47 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
428.47 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11563/53242
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 1
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact