Desertification Risk, Long-Term Land-Use Changes and Environmental Resilience: A Case Study in Basilicata, Italy

Quantifying the environmental vulnerability and the resilience of rapidly changing Mediterranean landscapes under climate change is a crucial undertaking for the sustainable management of regions experiencing intense human pressure. This paper diachronically (1975–2006) analyses the impact of land-use changes (LUCs) on land vulnerability to desertification at two coastal sites in southern Italy with different environmental and socioeconomic conditions to identify landscape responses to territorial reconfiguration. We found that both initial land vulnerability and its increase over time are higher in areas experiencing LUCs than in areas with stable patterns of land-use. Stable, low levels of land vulnerability to desertification were associated with forests and semi-natural areas, while urbanisation and agricultural intensification led to marked increases in land vulnerability. The procedure outlined in this paper is suitable for identifying land-use trajectories associated with the desertification processes and may inform policies aimed at preventing soil and land degradation.