A trade-based Forest Club as a path to halting Tropical deforestation

Deforestation is a critical global issue that urgently requires action to prevent irreversible environmental damage. Although the European Union has recently introduced regulations to curb tropical deforestation linked to imports, our analysis, which combines geospatial and economic tools, shows that these measures address only a fraction of the global problem (protecting only around 58,000 hectares of tropical forest annually) and shift forest loss to temperate regions while imposing significant costs on tropical, forest‐rich nations. To explore the potential of broader international cooperation to limit deforestation, we employ a global trade model, building an iterative game-theoretic approach integrating land-use dynamics across different ecological zones7. Here we show that adopting a Forest Club approach, inspired by the "Climate Clubs"8 concept, can effectively reduce tropical deforestation. By initiating unilateral efforts, analyzing deforestation at local levels, and implementing appropriate economic incentives and trade-related financial mechanisms, it is possible to form a cooperative group that attracts more countries over time. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a globally stable Forest Club that could significantly reduce global deforestation—by up to 15 million hectares—without imposing undue economic burdens. This highlights how well‐designed tariffs and negotiations can spark a stable, collective response to tropical forest loss worldwide.