This paper aims to analyze the influence of the economic system on housing market price trends in Italy. For this research it is used a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). In this econometric model, the historic series of house prices from 1970 to 2008 and historic series of some macroeconomic variables, defined through empirical evidences of similar studies carried out in an international setting, are introduced. The saving is added to the variables most frequently used in econometric tests – inflation, stock market prices, interest rate. This variable traditionally affects the purchase decision process of Italian households when they buy a property for personal usage or as investment. The reliability of the model developed is a consequence of the coherence between good statistical results and behavioural and institutional relations, ensued from economic theory.

Come le variabili macroeconomiche influenzano il mercato immobiliare italiano

MANGANELLI, BENEDETTO;
2010

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the influence of the economic system on housing market price trends in Italy. For this research it is used a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). In this econometric model, the historic series of house prices from 1970 to 2008 and historic series of some macroeconomic variables, defined through empirical evidences of similar studies carried out in an international setting, are introduced. The saving is added to the variables most frequently used in econometric tests – inflation, stock market prices, interest rate. This variable traditionally affects the purchase decision process of Italian households when they buy a property for personal usage or as investment. The reliability of the model developed is a consequence of the coherence between good statistical results and behavioural and institutional relations, ensued from economic theory.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11563/19629
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