Chapter 17 - Quantitative assessment of local warming based on urban dynamics

According to the United Nations, 68% of the world's population is projected to live in urban areas by 2050. This makes urban growth one of the cornerstones of sustainable development policies that must be implemented from the very beginning. Well-managed urbanization is indeed essential to minimize environmental degradation and land take phenomena while both maximizing the benefits of agglomeration and ensuring expected well-being for all the city dwellers. On the other hand, it is equally important that these growth dynamics interface in a systemic way with ongoing climate changes and its expected effects on the urban environment. Local climate regulation is a crucial urban ecosystem service since it directly affects the urban quality of life. Although theoretically its connection with soil sealing and land use change is known, it is worth explicating this relationship as a function of parameters significant, both altered surfaces and the kind by which urban expansion took place. This chapter simultaneously analyzes the changes in land surface temperature and urbanized settlement over a period of 15years within two regions that differ in size, population density and urbanization dynamics. Results show for all of them a much more marked increase in minimum temperatures in areas where urbanization has been matched by a decrease in the number of urban aggregates (phenomenon assimilated to that of urban settlement compaction).