Forest transition and metropolitan transformations in developed countries: Interpreting apparent and latent dynamics with local regression models

Metropolitan fringes in Southern Europe preserve, under different territorial contexts, natural habitats, relict woodlands, and mixed agro-forest systems acting as a sink of biodiversity and ecosystem services in ecologically vulnerable landscapes. Clarifying territorial and socioeconomic processes that underlie land-use change in metropolitan regions is relevant for forest conservation policies. At the same time, long-term dynamics of fringe forests in the northern Mediterranean basin have been demonstrated to be rather mixed, with deforestation up to the 1950s and a subsequent recovery more evident in recent decades. The present study makes use of Forest Transition Theory (FTT) to examine spatial processes of forest loss and expansion in metropolitan Rome, Central Italy, through local regressions elaborating two diachronic land-use maps that span more than 80 years (1936–2018) representative of different socioeconomic and ecological conditions. Our study evaluates the turnaround from net forest area loss to net forest area gain, considering together the predictions of the FTT and those of the City Life Cycle (CLC) theory that provides a classical description of the functioning of metropolitan cycles. The empirical findings of our study document a moderate increase in forest cover depending on the forestation of previously abandoned cropland as a consequence of tighter levels of land protection. Natural and human-driven expansion of small and isolated forest nuclei along fringe land was demonstrated to fuel a polycentric expansion of woodlands. The results of a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) reveal the importance of metropolitan growth in long-term forest expansion. Forest–urban dynamics reflect together settlement sprawl and increased forest disturbance. The contemporary expansion of fringe residential settlements and peri-urban forests into relict agricultural landscapes claims for a renewed land management that may reconnect town planning, reducing the intrinsic risks associated with fringe woodlands (e.g., wildfires) with environmental policies preserving the ecological functionality of diversified agro-forest systems.