Monitoring and modeling urban sprinkling: a new perspective of land take

According to the studies done until now on the recent urban transformation dynamics, namely urban sprinkling, this thesis aims to investigate the phenomenon from different points of view to bring out its unsustainable character. The urban dispersion phenomena, specific characteristic of low-density territories, will be examined through the sprinkling index by including new components in addition to the traditional settlement system components. It allows to evaluate the shape of the anthropic settlements and the distance between them which often results in fragmentation of the urban settlements which in turn generate landscape fragmentation. Nowadays, both in the proximity of large cities and in more external areas such as rural areas, there are often evidences of strong fragmentation of the anthropic settlements in which, even if the amount of occupied surface (land take) may not seem worrying, its configuration determines a general decrease in ecological connectivity, landscape quality and general degradation of soil functions. The general hypothesis is that fragmentation (of urban, landscape and habitat) can become an indicator of land take. In fact, it is not enough to consider only the loss of natural or agricultural areas, but also the distribution of buildings in the landscape matrix, i.e., its spatial component. An emblematic case is that of Basilicata region whose dynamics of transformation from the 50s to the present day will be investigated in this thesis. According to the latest report of the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA 2020), the Basilicata region has only 3.15% of land consumption compared to the entire regional surface. This indicator is in contrast with the shape of the anthropic settlements which results fragmented and dispersed. It is essential that the effects of fragmentation as well as ecosystem disaggregation take on a "measurable" character, joining the list of indicators of urban and territorial quality such as land take and land consumption that European Union addresses to national communities currently consider essential and decisive to highlighting the efficiency/inefficiency of environmental and landscape management. It is crucial to understand and investigate what have been and will be in the future the most influential drivers on these dynamics that contribute intrinsically to land consumption and to define the addresses or the thresholds to contain this pulverized and disordered dissemination of anthropic settlements.