Developing an Impact Model for Climate Adaptation Strategy Design: The Case Study of Basilicata Region, Italy

As climate adaptation gains prominence in policy and planning, the development of operational tools to support strategy formulation becomes increasingly critical. This paper presents an integrated impact model developed within the framework of the GD-CURE (GeoDesign for Climate Urban Neutrality) project, aimed at enhancing territorial governance in climate adaptation and mitigation planning. The model adopts a flexible, scalable structure to support informed decision-making across multiple territorial levels. It had been adopted in a stakeholder co-design strategic workshop to evaluate and compare alternative scenarios, balancing environmental benefits with resource constraints. Applied to the Basilicata Region in Italy, the tool assesses potential impacts of selected adaptation and mitigation measures in real-time. Results demonstrate the model's capacity to simulate GHG reduction outcomes and spatial intervention coverage, facilitating prioritization in a short, participatory Geodesign workshop. Future research will extend the tool's application to additional case studies, refining its operational capabilities and transferability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating scientific evidence, stakeholder input, and policy frameworks to meet ambitious climate goals effectively.