Atmospheric drying across Europe is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context

Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) represents the desiccation strength of the atmosphere, fundamentally impacting evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning and vegetation productivity. Its spatial patterns and long-term changes under natural versus human-induced climate change are poorly understood but are essential for predicting its future ecological and socio-economic effects, e.g., on crop yield, bioclimatic comfort or wildfires. We combine regional reconstructions of pre-industrial summer VPD variability from a European tree-ring oxygen-isotope network with excellent climate sensitivity with observations and Earth System Model simulations. We demonstrate a recent human-induced intensification of atmospheric drying across Europe that exceeds natural variability specifically in the Alps and Pyrenees, but also in western, central and southern Europe. A less distinct increase occurs in Fennoscandia. This VPD increase may cause an enhanced risk of tree mortality, forest decline and yield reductionsevenin the temperate lowland regions of Europe, particularly when considering the extreme drought events in the recent years.