Decision-making support tools and scenario analysis for valorising endogenous resources and promoting energy efficiency

Climate change represents the greatest environmental challenge humanity has ever faced, whose effects today seem to be irreversible. In such a context, agriculture is facing four main challenges: (i) becoming more resilient and adapting to climate change, (ii) reducing its impact in terms of GHG emissions and soil degradation, (iii) increasing its carbon sink potential, (iv) providing sufficient and healthy food to meet the growing demand of the population. This requires a transition from current models of intensive production to new models based on sustainable resource management. The adoption of a holistic approach is therefore essential to effectively represent the main variables (energy, water, environment, food and soil) and their interrelationships, exploit the complex interconnections between them and the associated phenomena, reduce risks identify feasible strategies for sustainable resource management based on integrated policies. An integration of the Nexus approach with the IEA-TIMES framework has been proposed to develop an innovative land use driven model - the TIMES Land-WEF model, which ensures an optimal management of resources of the entire agricultural system in a circular economy perspective. The TIMES- Land-WEF model was validated in the Basilicata Region, a selected area of Mediterranean Europe, in order to evaluate the robustness of solutions under different conditions, namely to determine the effects of climate change on agricultural production and performing and assessment of the Farm to Fork strategy of the EU Green Deal.