AN INNOVATIVE METHODOLOGY FOR THE SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION ON LARGE TERRITORIAL SCALE

Seismic risk reduction of student populations in highly seismic areas is crucial. A considerable intervention on urban scale in the system of public schools is a challenge for governments due to limited economic availability and the remarkable amount of school buildings that are extremely vulnerable. A prioritization strategy of intervention is required. Decision makers need modern and efficient methods that allow a multidisciplinary approach. Several studies have proposed prioritization ranking but it is necessary to go beyond the simple reduction of vulnerability aspects and provide rational and valid operational tools on the technical-scientific level. In this paper, we propose to define a prioritization methodology for seismic risk reduction in public schools. The case of schools in the city of Lima was analyzed. Data of the previous studies were used, elaborated, and integrated in order to provide the proposed methodology. Through the concept of resilient city, we defined qualitative and quantitative evaluation criteria. They consider the factors that determine the seismic risk of the buildings (i.e. hazard, vulnerability and exposure), how to manage and recover the emergency as well as integration and social cohesion aspects. Based on each criterion, the schools were analyzed separately also using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in order to identify their spatial and territorial relationships with the surroundings. Subsequently, the processed data were directly integrated using appropriate Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. For each criterion was assigned a weight, and through their assignment, numerous political scenarios were considered. These scenarios want to simulate some likely behaviors of the decision maker in order to consider the possible uncertainties involved in planning. The proposed work could represent a real seismic risk mitigation policy on a large territorial scale. In fact, through the MCDM methods and using the concept of city resilience, it could provide a simplified and multi-disciplinary approach, with solid technical and scientific bases and a holistic view of the problem.